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DTN Midday Grain Comments     09/29 11:11

   All Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 6 to 8 cents lower, and wheat is 1 
to 6 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   The U.S. stock market is weaker with the Dow down 200 points. The dollar 
index is 36 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are 
weaker with crude $1.70 lower. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. 
Precious metals are mixed with gold up $16.

   CORN

   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with broad weakness at midday 
keeping trade at the lower end of the recent range ahead of the stocks report 
tomorrow. The daily export wire will be watched to see if sales maintain the 
recent pace with nothing seen today. Ethanol margins are steady with unleaded 
holding near the upper end of the recent range. Basis should see pressure this 
week with more bushels coming in to town. Weekly crop progress showed 75% 
mature vs. 65% on average, and 15% harvested vs. 16% on average, with 61% good 
to excellent and 14% poor to very poor, unchanged. The report tomorrow is 
expected to show corn stocks at 2.25 billion bushels. On the December contract, 
trade has support at the $3.65 20-day moving average which are below at midday 
then the $3.54 lower Bollinger band, with the recent high at $3.78 as 
resistance.

   SOYBEANS

   Soybean trade is 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with trade seeing further 
harvest pressure and long liquidation ongoing, with export announcements of 
100,000 to Mexico. Meal is $3.50 to $4.50 lower and oil is 65 to 75 lower. The 
ral remains in the lower end of the range ahead of South American planting 
with farmers waiting for seasonal rains while Argentine farmer selling remains 
slow, with Brazil heavily sold ahead. Export offers continue to get tighter in 
availability as well with meal driving the product complex while strain on 
domestic logistics will increase as shipping pace needs move along at a rapid 
pace. Weekly crop progress showed 74% dropping leaves vs. 69% on average, with 
20% harvested vs. 15% average with 64% good to excellent and 10% poor to very 
poor. The stocks report is expected to show 576 million bushels. The November 
chart has resistance at the upper Bollinger Band at $10.46 which is also the 
fresh high with support the 20-day at $9.93 which we are just below this a.m., 
with the lower Bollinger Band at $9.48 below that.

   WHEAT

   Wheat trade 2 to 6 cents lower at midday with sideway action ongoing with 
trade back into support levels with early gains fading and Chicago trade 
leading. Export competitiveness remains about the same with the focus remaining 
on Europe dryness along with U.S. plains progress. Kansas City is at a 71-cent 
discount to Chicago with spreads wider and back to the recent highs, while 
Minneapolis is back to a 23 cent discount with weaker action. Wheat drilling 
progress should expand across the plains short term with ok moisture for most 
for now but follow up rain lacking overall. Weekly crop progress showed 
planting progress at 35% vs 33% on average, with 10% emerged vs. 8% on average. 
The stock report is expected to show 2.242 billion bushels with all wheat 
production at 1.841 billion bushels. Kansas City December chart resistance is 
the fresh high at $5.09, and support is the 20-day at $4.79, which we are just 
above with the lower Bollinger Band the next level at $4.61.

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser.
He can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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